How to Bet on Over/Under 2.5 Goals

How to Bet on Over/Under 2.5 Goals


What does Under/Over 2.5 goals mean?

OK, this is very simple. In order to win an Over 2.5 goals bet for a game, there must be a total of 3 or more goals during the match.

It doesn’t matter which teams scores and how many goals they score. The match must have at least 3 goals scored – for example a result of 2-1 or 5-3 would win an Over 2.5 bet.

On the other hand, Under 2.5 goals means there must be no more than 2 goals total in the game for it to win. Again it is of no matter which team may score a goal, at the end of the match the maximum is 2 goals scored in total for an Under 2.5 bet to win.

This particular kind of bet is one of our favorites. It is also certainly one of the most popular type of bets nowadays. Placing Over/Under 2.5 goals bets yields considerable success chance when calculated right and when all match factors are taken under consideration.

When we tip a game outcome with an end result of Over/Under 2.5 goals, we have already made the necessary calculations. But how can you make the game analysis yourself? Here are the first steps to undertake in the process of predicting Over/Under 2.5 goals:

For the home team:

  1. How many goals has the home team scored in their last home matches
  2. How many of the home team’s last matches have ended with over/under 2.5 goals
  3. Average number of goals scored and conceded per match at home in a longer term – minimum for the past 6 matches

For the away team:

  1. How many goals has the away team  scored in their last away matches
  2. How many of the away team’s last matches have ended with over/under 2.5 goals
  3. Average number of goals scored and conceded per match playing away in a longer term – minimum for the last 6 matches.

For both teams:

  1. The count of games in the particular league that ended with over/under 2.5 goals
  2. Average goals scored per game in the league
  3. Quantity of goals scored in the previous games between the two teams (if such games have been played before)

*Sometimes it’s necessary to study more than 10 or 20 past matches, depending on the frequency of games.

Analyzing these will give you a mathematical overview of the situation. But this is certainly not everything!

It’s not very accurate to assess a team’s true potential to score, based only on mathematics. If football was only about mathematics then we would have been able to win far more often than we do. You will have to delve deeper with your research.

First thing you have to look for is distortions in the scoreline pattern. Let’s say you do your research for 10 matches with 30 goals total. This makes an average of 3 goals per match. But if the majority of them ended with approximately 2 goals per match and u have two anomalies with a result of 5-6 goals per match, that distorts the total picture, especially for a research of only 10 past matches.

This simply means that the best thing you could do is track occurrences instead of averages. We advise considering something between 20 and 30 of the past games for the team that you research.

Second golden rule you have to follow is not going too wild with your guesses. And by that we mean choosing similar bets for example Over/Under 3.5 goals; Over/Under 4.5 goals. As it may sometimes be worth it, most of the times it doesn’t carry as much value as other bets, which makes it not worthwhile. Of course if you are sure about it, then just go for it.

In order to identify some true scoring potential take into consideration goal shots and shots on target, not only the ones that went into the net. As we like to say – It’s a ball, it spins. Incorporate your findings with the rest of the present data.

Last but not least, consider the current situation of the teams and their performance when facing similar circumstances. You shouldn’t forget the overall picture in the league and the trends in it – stronger and a goal rich beginning of the season or an ending of the season.

After you put all of this knowledge into use, you can have the upper hand in predicting a more probable outcome for the game you want to bet on.